Monday, July 27, 2009

Chapter 4 - The Challenger



The beginning of this chapter focuses on China and its rapid growth in the past three decades. During the industrialization of Europe, China went backwards in terms of growth, mostly due to poor government policies. After WWII, China was slowly becoming a Western ally and even obtained a seat in the security council until Mao Zedong proclaimed China as a communist state with close ties to the Soviet Union in 1949. That decision, once again put a damper on the Chinese growth and retarded its pace.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/PRCFounding.jpg
On October 1, 1949 at grand ceremony in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, Mao Zedong, chairman of the Central People's Government, solemnly proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC).
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/PRCFounding.jpg

Mao Zedong pulled China through a series of catastrophic events, which eventually destroyed its economy, technology and intellectual capital. Finally in 1979 globalization reached China. They slowly started launching economic reforms and realizing the communist ideologies and models can not feed and shelter 1.3 billion Chinese people. Data shows that such reforms led to an astonishing growth of over 9 percent a year, for over three decades. In that same time line, this growth lifted nearly 400 million Chinese people out of poverty. Fareed explains that the magnitude of change in China is unimaginable. He uses Shanghai and Beijing as examples of the urban growth. The financial district in Shanghai, and the growth of public transit in Beijing are just a few examples of how fast China is growing. He identifies this concept of growth by giving us an example that involves most of his readers. Almost everyone living in North America is familiar with Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is the biggest company in North America and it employs more than 1.4 million people. The company imports about $18 billions worth of goods from China each year (2006 figures). This figure shows us how our biggest corporation's global supply chain is basically a Chinese supply chain.

Fareed believes that China was able to achieve this rate of growth because they pursued a distinctly open trade and investment policy, unlike Japan or South Korea. They opened their markets to foreign goods and China has become one of the most open economies in the world. In spite of the rapid growth, Fareed concludes his argument by stating that China is not going to replace the United States as the world super power. China has become the second-most-important country in the world, but it is unlikely to surpass the U.S. on any dimension for many decades.

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/archives/communist-china.jpg
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/archives/communist-china.jpg

China is considered to be a communist regime, however they accept capitalism with open arms. They believe in the concept of letting the markets do their work of balance the economy. The Chinese worked slowly in fixing the economy and rather than getting rid of the inefficient industries, they let the markets wipe them out. They use central planning which has its advantages and disadvantages. One big disadvantage is the government share of tax receipts (around 50% in China) shows a lack of coordination between the center and the regions. Fareed's point of view is that the problem of spiraling decentralization will be China's greatest challenge. I point out one advantage of this centralization, which is that the government can go ahead with developments and need not to worry about the voters. They do not have to spend billions of dollars on useless or inefficient projects only to satisfy their voters to assure their seat. That is one problem that can really slow down a countries growth.

The following link is a video from you tube on the growth of India and China



Indian officials like that their Chinese counterparts do not need to worry about voters. In India the politicians have to conduct certain projects that are popular but foolish to ensure their re-election, where the Chinese are able to make many decisions that are far-sighted. Although that is mostly the case in China, people are slowly rising up against the leaders. Globalization brings awareness with it and connects people all over the world. They learn from other country's struggles for freedom and change the model to suit their purpose. In China, regional differences are rising and inequality is skyrocketing. This may also be due to the fact that China compressed their growth into three decades, whereas an equivalent growth in the West took two centuries. It is hardly a surprise that the Chinese state is struggling to keep up with this social upheaval. The most famous was Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d8/Tianasquare.jpg
Tank Man — This famous photo, taken on 5 June 1989 by photographer Jeff Widener
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d8/Tianasquare.jpg

Fareed also brings up the concept of pollution. There is a high environmental consequence to China's growth. Over a quarter of water in Chinese rivers are completely polluted. Air pollution is widespread and according to Fareed, only about 1% of the urban population breathe air considered safe by the EU standards.

Fareed states that the Marx model of economy explains how when an economy becomes market oriented, they tend to turn to democracy, and by looking at a few countries over decades of development, the pattern is obvious. China is still controlled by a communist party, however many of the leaders understand that dilemma.

He concludes this arguement by stating that China is hungry for success, which is the most likely reason for its rapid rise. They have overcome war, poverty, and isolation and are now finally moving forward. Today, China's leader, the elites, and everyone else in the country have one common desire to move forward and they are unlikely to cast aside three decades of growth and prosperity.

China's growth internally also affects its international relations. Countries with such capacity are not born everyday so this event grabed everyone's attention. The first step, Fareed argues, was to get closer to America and guarantee an entrance to the world's largest consumer market. They archived that by going along with America in the 1980s and for the most part, supported the American agenda in the UN council.

The Chinese have a relatively similar approach to dealing with the rest of the world. The one notable difference is existence of god. The Chinese, along with many East Asian countries, do not believe that one needs god, to be moral in dealings with others. They do not believe in a creator and his set of moral laws that must be followed. The Chinese have their own ways of spirituality such as Confucianism. They celebrate Confucianism for its reliance on reason rather than on divinity as a guide to human affairs.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/85/Confuciusstatue.jpg
Statue of Confucius on Chongming Island in Shanghai
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/85/Confuciusstatue.jpg

In the early days when Europe was far ahead in technological advancments, China had more advanced ethics and a better civil organization. Fareed explains that the concept of god and religion in the East, is hard for Westerners to understand. One example was the Portugese missionary, Matteo Ricci, who traveled to China in the 1580s. He shaved his head and dressed in the traditional buddist ropes to present himself as an honored fugure, not realizing that holy men were not held high in East Asia. His assumption of a universal respect for religious figures was far misguided and Fareed point that out well.

Historically god has been quite involved with foreign policy looking back at the Muslims and Christian conqurers. To this date, the missionary spirit is very present in the foriegn policy of many countries. China in contrast may never acquire such sense of destiny. Fareed argues that the Chinese see such issues differently, not with an abstract set of rights and wrongs, but with a sense of practicality that serves as a guiding philosophy.

China views itself as a nation intent on rising peacefully, its behaviour marked by humility, non-interference, and friendly relations with all. Fareed then explains that the peaceful rise of China will be determined by a combination of Chinese actions, and the other coutries' reactions. China is too big of a nation and economy to slip onto the world stage unnoticed. They operate on such a large scale that it cannot help changing the nature of the game. The new generation of the Chinese diplomats are well aware of China's new power.

The question is, will that power go to their head? For now the Chinese foreign policy remains entirely commercially focused. But as mentioned above, China is growing very rapidly. They have economic ties all over the world, invested in some of the biggest American corporations, and have plants and refinaries all over Africa and the Middle East and growing in numbers everyday. One might ask, what could be wrong with building such ties? The answer is nothing for now. Except that when China moves into these countries, it is taking up economic, political, and military space that was occupied by Britain, France or the United States, which has the possibility of causing friction in the future.

http://www.international.ucla.edu/cms/images/africa_china.jpg
Absence of political strings makes Chinese investment attractive for African governments
http://www.international.ucla.edu/cms/images/africa_china.jpg

The Chinese deal directly with the governments because they always control the natural resources that the Chinese need. The transactions are much easier with one centralized authority, especially if it is an outcast regime. An example of that is Zimbabwe, where China buys their minerals and sell weapons and radio technology in return. Despite a ban, China remains Mugabe's main supporter on the UN Security Council. Some believe that Beijing has been slow to recognize its responsibility in the region, however China has been more responsible in Asia. By 2007, they renewed relations with almost all the Asian countries in the region, which is a big step forward for China. Taiwan remains an issue, where China persists that Taiwan remaining attached to the mainland. They consider this an internal issue for China and do not welcome meddling by other, mostly Western, countries. In recent years they have chosen a smarter way regarding Taiwan. One, Fareed explains, is increasing Taiwan's dependence on the mainland, most significantly the reduction of tariffs on farm roducts that come from the most indepent-minded parts of Taiwan. Fareed concluded by saying that all the economic growth and globalization have made China plan for integration and yet have given it the power for military and political confrontation.

http://www.mapsofworld.com/taiwan/maps/taiwan-location-map.jpg
http://www.mapsofworld.com/taiwan/maps/taiwan-location-map.jpg

The importance of China's relation with every country in the world is heavily dependent on its relations with the United States. Historically, when the world's leading power is challenged by a rising power, the two have a very difficult relationship. Even though they might not admit it, they are both worried and plan for the worst. For three decades China has been acting in accordance with the U.S. interest, but increasingly, China's younger elite think that their country should think of itself as a competitor with the United States.

For now both China and the U.S. seem to depend on each other and cooperate on many world issues, but there are also disagreements. Some Pentagon officials have been blowing the whistle for a while, warning of the Chinese threat. Fareed argues that the Chinese understand how lopsided the military balance is. They are not as strong as the Soviet Union, so he thinks China will remain an "asymmetrical superpower."

Fareed concludes his arguement by raising another issue, which we will discuss in the next chapeter: "In thinking through how to approach China, American political elites have fixed their gaze on another rising power, close to, and close on the heels of, China-India."

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